Six converging threats to our way of life... and how to be ready for the ripples!

 

Wise Up - The Crash Course

Chapter 2B - Climate Change in Australia

 

 

(9 minutes)

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© 2009 Mitchell Lawrie

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For Further Information:

Climate Change - Final Warning.pdf     (This ‘call to arms’ from some of the country’s leading scientists, plus several commentators and politicians was written following the “Imagining the Real Life on a Greenhouse Earth” Conference June 2008, Australian National University, Canberra. It was approved by over 200 conference delegates.)

www.bom.gov.au/climate/change    (Wide variety of detailed information from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology information on climate change.)

Has-carbon-lobby-captured-kevin-rudd    (The author, Guy Pearse, is a former member of the Liberal Party and was a speechwriter for former environment minister Robert Hill. In 2007, after his research and concerns were dismissed by his political colleagues, he exposed the politics behind Australia's response to climate change on ABC TV's Four Corners and in his book High & Dry.)

www.GetUp.org.au    (GetUp is an independent, grass-roots community advocacy organisation giving everyday Australians opportunities to get involved and hold politicians accountable on important issues. )

 

Prefer to Read? Here it is...

 

Chapter 2B - Climate Change in Australia... Be Warned!

For a long time Australia has considered itself “The Lucky Country” because of its rich resources, stability, agricultural bounty and wide, open spaces.

But as the world’s driest inhabited continent, climate change could mean our luck has run out...

Numerous sources have been trying to warn us.

Australian climate scientists are in agreement with the international scientific consensus. In a recent speech at Australia’s Parliament House our Chief Scientist, Professor Penny Sackett gave the following warning to our Parliament:

“The newest science, based on more, better and a larger spectrum of data, illustrates clearly that the earth is reacting more quickly to greenhouse gases, tracking along the worst case scenario of the IPCC report.

If we do not act, and act quickly and decisively, the effects will be devastating.”


The Australian Department of Climate Change has warned:

“Australia is vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation projected for the next 50 to 100 years, because it already has extensive arid and semi-arid areas, relatively high rainfall variability from year to year, existing pressures on water supply in many areas.... (and) high fire risk.

The 2009 Victorian bushfires with close to 200 people killed were a clear demonstration of Australia’s high fire risk. Climate change could bring even more powerful bushfires.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has warned:

“Australia and the globe are experiencing rapid climate change. Since the middle of the 20th century, Australian temperatures have, on average, risen by about 1°C with an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and a decrease in the numbers of frosts and cold days.”

2007 was southern Australia’s hottest year on record.  This map from the Bureau of Meteorology shows in dark red the area which was most above average.

The Bureau of Meteorology also warns that:

“Rainfall patterns have also changed - the northwest has seen an increase in rainfall over the last 50 years while much of eastern Australia and the far southwest have experienced a decline.” This map from the Bureau clearly shows these trends.

Specifically it shows that along most of Australia’s coast, where over 90% of our population lives, rainfall has declined by about 50mm a decade. According to a 2007 IPCC Working Group, water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia.

This photo of the Darling River taken just 50 kilometers from where it joins the Murray River shows the dire state already of one of our most important river systems.

Our next warning is from the CSIRO. They caution that climate change impacts include more heatwaves, more frequent El Nino events, sea level rises and increases in cyclonic wind intensity.

Vulnerable areas include:
•    low lying coastal population and resort centres
•    tropical and sub–tropical population centres
•    alpine regions
•    centres with a high dependence on agriculture or eco–tourism
•    remote Indigenous communities
•    areas of southern Australia facing acute water shortages

Sea level rises alone could have massive impacts on future generations as this mock photo demonstrates.

According to a report prepared for The Australian Department of The Environment and Heritage...

The most vulnerable sectors/regions in Australia are:
•    Agriculture - including cropping and livestock
•    Biodiversity
•    Coasts - including fisheries
•    Forests - both natural and plantations
•    Settlements - including human health, transport, and energy
•    Water - quality and supplies
Basically everybody will be affected somehow in the coming decades.

The Garnaut report warns
•    It is already apparent that mitigation will come too late to avoid substantial damage from climate change.
•    The range and scale of impacts that is likely across Australia is such that it is not feasible for governments to underwrite maintenance of established patterns of life for all people in all places.

My personal interpretation of what Garnaut is saying is don’t count on the government bailing you out in the future. In the light of peak oil and other impacts on government revenues I doubt that all three levels of government will have anywhere near the level of resources that they currently have to assist in climate-related disasters such as droughts and floods.

Once we get away from the official government reports the warnings get even more graphic. In Mark Lynas’ digest of existing scientific research, “Six Degrees – Our Future on a Hotter Planet,” he reports some disturbing findings:
At two degrees Celsius temperature rise much of Australia will fall outside of the belts of regular rainfall meaning that droughts will be more common and more prolonged.
Agricultural yields in the Murray-Darling Basin will drop even more dramatically.
The Great Barrier Reef will bleach, die and eventually dissolve.

At three degrees it gets worse:
"The combination of fire, heat and drought will make life in Australia increasingly untenable as the world warms. Farming and food production will tip into irreversible decline.”

At four degrees it could be pretty much game over for Australia… according to Lynas’ summary of research findings:
"… none of the continent of Australia - except perhaps the extreme north and Tasmania - will be able to support significant crop production in the four-degree world because of heatwaves and declining rainfall."
We could hit a 4-degree rise within the lifetimes of most people viewing this video. I hope the impacts are not this bad … but I wouldn’t like to bet the country on the research being wrong.

With so much at stake you might find yourself wondering why the Australian government and others aren’t doing more to prevent climate change. Why was Australia the second last country in the world to sign up to the Kyoto agreement?! Why are our emission reduction targets so weak? To gain a deeper understanding I suggest you read this little article:

“Has The Carbon Lobby Captured Kevin Rudd?"
"Guy Pearse exposes the extent to which the carbon lobby has used its financial clout to infiltrate both government and "independent" organisations.”
Don’t underestimate the power of the coal mining lobby along with the deep pockets of the electricity, cement, oil, car manufacturing, trucking, paper, plastics and chemicals sectors to confuse and delay public awareness and government action.
This is not to deny the accusation of the climate change deniers that some financial interests are pushing for a carbon emissions trading scheme because they plan to manipulate it for their own profit.  The sad reality of our global system is that there are financial elites on both sides of most major issues seeking profits irrespective of the wider costs to society. It’s just that science and the precautionary principle happen to be against the climate change deniers and the coal mining lobby. You’ll find the link for Pearse’s article below the video in the Further Information section.
In conclusion, the situation is serious and yes... we have been warned. And by a large number of reliable sources. Of all the six global stresses, climate change has by far the largest ethical dimension as it will not just affect us, but all of our descendants and most other species for many thousands of years to come.


Currently we are the world’s highest greenhouse gas emitter per capita. As a country with a lot to lose from climate change the example we set is important. If we don’t change our current half-hearted approach to reducing climate change we’ll pay a high price. Apart from all the climate impacts our carbon intensive economy will soon see us penalized internationally.  Few people realize that Europe, the U.S. and other countries are currently planning carbon-based tariffs that will hit our exports hard if we don’t decisively reduce carbon emissions.

While Australia alone can not stop climate change we need to lead by example and help other countries with technology to reduce their emissions. We need to stop being the world’s biggest exporter of  coal. We need to act as individuals and as a country.

Here are Five possible actions to get you started.

1. For individual and household changes to reduce climate change impacts see Part 3 of this course.
2. Write to or visit your local Federal Member of Parliament and Federal Senator to explain your concerns about climate change and ask them to take action. Try putting it in terms they can understand... economic impacts on their area.
3. At each election (local, State or Federal), vote for the party with the best climate change policies.
4. Keep seeking information about climate change and talking with other people about it to raise awareness. Suggest they take the Be Prepared Crash Course! Email the link to friends.
5. Support some direct action groups such as Get Up’s climate ad campaigns

All I can promise you is that you’ll feel better if you act on what you are learning!

In the next Chapter we’ll look at the dangerous nature of exponential growth and what it means to us.