Six converging threats to our way of life... and how to be ready for the ripples!

 

Wise Up - The Crash Course

Chapter 2A - The Climate Change Wildcard

 

(18 minutes)

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Go Next To:  Chapter 2B:  Climate Change in Australia... Be Warned

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For Further Information:

Poles Apart: Beyond the Shouting, Who's Right About Climate Change - If you are still feeling confused by all the claims and the counter-claims surrounding the climate change debate then read this book. It sets out what two smart, "non-greenie" men discovered in their 18 month mission to get to the bottem of the climate change debate. It is unique in that they hired the best international scientists available from both sides to present their arguments and counter-arguments and sifted through all the distractions and distortions to arrive at a clear core understand of our current state of climate knowledge. Borrow it from your library, get your bookstore to get it for you or buy it from Amazon if you crave more clarity and certainty on this critical issue.

www.abc.net.au/catalyst  - The latest scientific findings - Catalyst TV program interview with Professor Will Steffen, Executive Director ANU Climate Change Institute and Science Adviser to the Department of Climate Change, Australian Government.

www.community.supergreenme.com/_Is-climate-change-a-load-of-dogs-doo-doo
- short, fun look at the attempts to discredit climate change science

www.scienceblogs.com/... how climate science is decided    - If you really want to understand how science works, how it is different from a persuasive debate, and why climate change deniers are extremely unlikely to be correct then read this article.

www.realclimate.org    - RealClimate is a commentary site on climate science by working climate scientists for the interested public and journalists.  Great source of in-depth information

www.marklynas.org  - Website of the author of "Six Degrees - Our Future  on a Hotter Planet"

 

Prefer to Read? Here it is...

 

Chapter 2A - The Climate Change Wildcard

 

A lot of confusion has been created around climate change.

I want to make a couple of things very clear. Yes... we don’t know for certain, exactly, when and how climate change is going to impact us.

But we do know a few things for sure:

1. The greenhouse effect is proven. The hard science behind climate change is not just some new fad. The greenhouse effect that the atmosphere has, in keeping the planet warm, was first discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824. The effect on the global climate of releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere was first described in 1896. There are now thousands of solid, peer-reviewed scientific papers that establish that if you increase CO2 and other greenhouse gases you are going to get a warming effect on the planet. No one has proved this effect false. This diagram shows how the atmosphere can trap and emit heat that would have otherwise escaped into space. It is not that different to using a thicker blanket on your bed to hold more heat in.



 

2. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are rising... and rising at a rate (i.e the steepness of this line) not seen on this planet in many hundreds of thousands of years. And they have risen to a level (i.e. the height of this line) not seen on this planet for many hundreds of thousands of years. And there is no doubt that they are rising because of us... our activities on the planet.



3. The temperature IS rising. This graph is a comparison of 10 different published reconstructions of mean temperature changes during the last 1000 years. The results have been determined by analysing a variety of different sources including corals, stalagmites, tree rings, boreholes, ice cores, etc. It is not just one scientist’s findings. It is a fair representation of the range of reconstructions appearing in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. The solid black line is actual observed temperatures. The scientific consensus is clear... we have had significant warming in the last hundred years

 

So what about those who deny the reality of human induced climate change? The climate change deniers.

Many of these people have good intentions. But whether they realize it or not... the fact is that climate change deniers are being selective in “cherry picking” their evidence to support their case. In our complex world it is always possible to find conflicting evidence on any issue.

 

However, when one looks at the totality of the scientific evidence it is clear we have a real problem. In the words of Richard Smith, reporting on climate change controversy in the newsletter of the American Statistical Association…

 

“In the end, it's important not to lose sight of the forest for the trees, where the ‘forest’ refers to the totality of scientific evidence for global warming.”

 

The core science behind the climate change warnings has been established very carefully and firmly. The climate change deniers have persuasive sounding arguments for their beliefs but do not have solid evidence-backed theories which stand-up to scrutiny by experts in the field of climate science.

 

As an example, I was listening to the ABC radio recently and they were interviewing an Australian professor who had just written a book basically declaring climate change to be a load of rubbish. At first I got my hopes up. I would love someone to be able to bring forth solid evidence that climate change is not threatening our planet. Unfortunately, I found that most of his statements over the radio were out of context or had been convincingly dismissed by scientists who had spent their lives studying these topics. However the interviewer was clearly impressed by his statements. When I got home I found his professional resume on the internet. It was very interesting to see that he had never published any peer-reviewed scientific papers in any way associated with climate change. All his scientific work had been related to mining geology. One can only speculate whether his long association with the mining industry had affected his views in relation to climate change.

 

 While there will always be people who find reasons to deny something... whether it is that Neil Armstrong actually landed on the moon or that the holocaust took place during World War 2... we can’t let that stop us from heeding the climate change warnings. The risks are too great.

 

It is because of the totality of the evidence that almost all the governments in the world now accept that we have a problem with climate change. Unfortunately, they can’t agree who is going to pay for it. That is... who is going to constrain their economic growth to substantially cut greenhouse gas emissions. So far, no government is willing to give up its commitment to endless economic expansion.

 

Speaking frankly... things are not looking too good for much of the human race.

Global greenhouse gas emissions are continuing to rise. While the developed countries are responsible for most of the greenhouse gas emissions, much of the recent increases are coming from the burning of coal to generate electricity in countries such as India and China.

 

The 2007 report from the UN’s Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change is now regarded as fairly conservative in it’s warnings by many scientists.

Steve Chu is the United States Secretary of Energy, Nobel Prize-winning professor of physics and molecular biology and the former Director of the famed Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. He is regarded as one of the world's leading climate and energy experts.

 

He recently said:

 

“Since the IPCC report came out in 2007, new data point to even more alarming scenarios. We underestimate the risk and ignore the fact that the planet is threatened with "sudden, unpredictable, and irreversible disaster.”

 

Think about that… sudden, unpredictable, and irreversible disaster!

 

What this means is that if we wait until we are absolutely certain of every aspect of climate change it will be too late.

 

It would be like waiting until you knew the wind direction and exactly how much of your roof was going to get blown off by a cyclone or hurricane before deciding that you should invest in house insurance. According to the “precautionary principle” when the potential negative impacts are large, governments should take preventive actions even when there is still some uncertainty.

One reason global carbon dioxide emissions urgently need to be reduced very soon is time lag effect in the climate system. This graph from the IPCC shows how even after carbon dioxide starts falling, temperatures and sea level will keep rising. We’re only just starting to see the effects of the CO2 that we’ve already put in the atmosphere. Some recent scientific studies have found it is most likely that the greenhouse gases we’ve to date emitted have already locked us in to about two degrees of warming in the coming decades.

What are recent official reports saying now?

In June 09 The United States Global Change Research Program released a major report called Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States

This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments and recently published research.

 

They reported ten Key Findings… most of which apply equally to the rest of the world as well.

They are:

1. Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced.

2. Climate changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to grow.

3. Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase.

The report states that climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health.

4. Climate change will stress water resources… in particular. 

5. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged.

6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge.

7. Risks to human health will increase.

8. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses.

 According to the report, climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger impacts than from any of these factors alone. This is a point I will discuss more later in the course… but the basic point is that global stresses are converging in a way that will increase their impacts.

9. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems.

10. Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today.

 

Also in 2009 the world's top climate scientists met in Copenhagen at the International Scientific Congress on Climate Change.

Their six Key Messages for us were:

Key Message 1: Climatic Trends

Recent observations confirm that, given high rates of observed emissions, the worst-case IPCC scenarios (or even worse) are being realised. The climate system is already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which our society and economy have developed and thrived. There is a significant risk that many of the trends will accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts.

 

Key Message 2: Social Disruption

Recent observations show that societies are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change, with poor nations and communities particularly at risk. Temperature rises above 2°C will be very difficult for contemporary societies to cope with.

 

Key Message 3: Long-Term Strategy

Rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation is required to avoid "dangerous climate change." Weaker targets for 2020 increase the risk of crossing tipping points.

 

Key Message 4: Equity Dimensions

Climate change is having, and will have, strongly differential effects on people within and between countries. My comment: wealthy elites will be able to protect themselves more than others. The poorer a country or person the more vulnerable they are likely to be.

 

Key Message 5: Inaction is Inexcusable

We already have the tools.  But they must be vigorously and widely implemented to to decarbonise economies. A wide range of benefits will flow, including sustainable energy job growth.

 

Key Message 6: Meeting the Challenge

To achieve the societal transformation required, we must seize critical opportunities. These include reducing the influence of vested interests that increase emissions and engaging society in the transition to norms and practices that foster sustainability.

 

We’ve heard numerous mentions so far in official reports about “tipping points”, “thresholds”, and “abrupt shifts” in climate.

 

What they are referring to is perhaps the biggest concern of climate scientists. They know that climate change will not be a smooth steady process but they don’t know exactly when we will go past dangerous points of no return. These tipping points could start “positive feedback loops” where a change in the climate system causes more change which then causes more and more change.

 

Just a few of these potential positive feedback loops are:

• Melting ice and snow can result in less heat being reflected back into space
• Tropical jungles around the world can dry out and then burn releasing massive carbon dioxide
• Frozen deposits in the permafrost and on the ocean floor can thaw and release giant quantities of methane... a worse greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide

 

These self-reinforcing effects could cause runaway climate change and push us to the IPCC upper range forecast for this century far quicker than their models currently suggest. That’s a six degrees Celsius rise. We just can’t quantify all the risks yet ... there are too many unknown variables.

 

People sometimes think... what’s a few degrees temperature rise? If six degrees sounds like a tropical vacation to you then I suggest you read “Six Degrees” by Mark Lynas. Lynas has read through thousands of peer-reviewed scientific papers on climate change from recent years and presented the predicted impacts at each degree Celsius of temperature rise. It is not a pretty picture.

 

Some of the impacts at 2 degrees Celsius rise are harsh. But by the time the world gets to 6 degrees it’s catastrophic. Most of the world is uninhabitable by today’s standards and humanity may be surviving in only a few areas near the poles.

 

If even half of the predicted impacts of climate change are correct we could be playing with the gates of hell. A sane world wouldn’t want to risk going anywhere near a two degree rise even.

 

Peak oil may hit us sooner... but climate change could hit us harder.

So what can we expect from current government efforts to stop climate change?

The cap and trade schemes that countries around the world, including Australia and the U.S., are putting in place may be too little too late. I hope they’re not, but a growing number of scientists are saying the targets and the legislation are too weak. The influence of industry lobby groups has been too powerful in shaping both. This seems quite plausible. Just as one measure of relative influence, look at this chart of the number of U.S. lobbyists on climate change by sector. The dark orange bar is 2008 and the light orange bar is 2003. The number of lobbyists from the manufacturing, power and utilities, oil and gas, and transportation sectors has grown hugely and far out number the environment and alternative energy sector lobbyists. Big business is obviously throwing a lot of money and power around.

And remember… because of the time lag effect in the climate system, every year that we delay, locks us in to bigger climate changes in the future. Some observers describe current international efforts to put in place weak targets as a global suicide pact.

Unfortunately, peak oil may not stop climate change. It could, in fact, worsen the problem. The Garnaut report prepared for the Australian government found that high oil prices could result in substitution away from oil and gas towards coal and synthetic liquid hydrocarbons (derived from coal, tar sands or natural gas) and would increase growth in emissions. Coal-to-liquid plants are widely recognized as being one of worst potential emitters of greenhouse gases and need to be avoided.

Our best hope may be that early climate change impacts and growing awareness of the dangers trigger a cultural revolution around the world… soon. Putting massive pressure on governments and corporate elites to stop playing games for short-term profit and seize peak oil as an opportunity for reducing emissions. All of us need to do whatever we can to influence our governments.

I refer to climate change as the wildcard because when you play cards the wildcard can quickly decide the outcome of the game. If we do go past some tipping points, it could be game over... unstoppable climate change to six degrees or more. A six degree rise would most likely result in the death of a majority of the human race... and perhaps a majority of all species on earth. Game over.

This is my issue with climate change deniers. They are proposing the world’s biggest bet! That we bet the planet on them being right rather than just give up some economic growth now. Regardless of their claims, their strong convictions and their sometimes good intentions, we can not be sure that runaway climate change will not occur. No one has ever taken planet Earth before, at this stage of its evolution, increased its greenhouse gases and run the test. If we lose the bet are they going to say like this cartoon... “Ah, hell... C’mon! We had tumble dryers... air conditioning... cheap flights... big cars... free plastic toys with our breakfast cereal... I say it was worth it!”

Are you?

 

No matter how you look at it, climate change is something we must act on. We must do whatever we can to reduce it and we must prepare for what we can’t stop. It could be considerable.

 

Coming up in the next video, Chapter 2B, we’ll look at the impacts of climate change specifically in Australia. If that is not relevant to you, feel free to go to Chapter 3 where we reveal something few people understand... the dangerous nature of exponential growth.